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Potential Panel Members
ERM - Risk and Resilience Program to Support Development of a Highway Risk & Resilience Manual
Literature Search Summary
Several studies on the topic of risk and resilience have been conducted through the NCHRP Process as well as FHWA and a few state DOTs. Below is a short list of some of the more relevant NCHRP projects that speak to quantitative methods of analysis for threats to asset condition and performance as well as those that worked to provide guidance on how to incorporate such analyses into decision making processes:
• NCHRP 23-09 [Active] Scoping Study to Develop the Basis for a Highway Standard to Conduct an All-Hazards Risk and Resilience Analysis
NCHRP 20-123(04) Development of a Risk Management Strategic Plan and Research Roadmap
• NCHRP 08-113 Integrating Effective Transportation Performance, Risk, and Asset Management Practice
• NCHRP 23-08 A Guide for Incorporating Maintenance Costs into a Transportation Asset Management Plan
• NCHRP 08-36 Task 146 Incorporating Resilience Considerations in Transportation Planning, TSMO and Asset Management
• NCHRP 20-127 – Business Case and Communication Strategies for State DOT Resilience Efforts
• FHWA – Integrating Resilience into the Planning Process
• Colorado DOT - Risk and Resilience Analysis Procedure A Manual for Calculating Risk to CDOT Assets from Flooding, Rockfall, and Fire Debris Flow
The proposed program of projects would work to integrate this research and extend quantitative methods of analysis into a single manual or standard analysis procedure to ease the burden of the profession when seeking information from disparate sources.
Transportation owners and operators are responsible for the transportation system and the delivery of a range of services and functions through the management of that system. There are inherent risks involved with the management of these systems, notwithstanding aging infrastructure, and fiscally constrained resources. Many agencies are moving toward performance-based resource allocation while simultaneously recognizing risks that may undermine their strategic goals. As these risks affect every component of a highway system to a greater or lesser extent, accurately accounting for and addressing these risks within a highway agency’s enterprise-wide management program is the goal which currently lacks analysis tools.
Investing in risk and resilience strategies and enhanced recovery to reduce or eliminate the impact of external events is also paramount to ensure a thriving, viable transportation system. Risk management requires the identification and assessment of potential threats and hazards, asset vulnerabilities from applicable threats, an evaluation of potential mitigation actions to reduce risk, a clear and easy to implement process to prioritize mitigation activities, and investment that aligns with agency strategic and performance goals. Asset management and more recently performance management, has been an ongoing focus of many research efforts. However, guidance for analytical risk assessment methods to support risk-based asset management processes is lagging. Risk assessment processes, methods, and tools are needed to integrate risk management into asset and performance management systems. In addition, an understanding of the relationship between risks and system resilience is lacking.
• Adopted definitions
• Standard framework for quantitative risk based on expected financial losses to agency and traveling public
• Establishment of performance metrics for risk and resilience
• Suggested risk tolerance and resilience performance targets that agencies can customize
• Methods to incorporate climate projections into decision making
• Methods to analyze both deterministic and probabilistic input data (500-yr flood versus climate scenarios)
Future research can expand threats analyzed; assets analyzed; climate projections; life cycle cost; remaining life consideration of assets; environmental impacts, etc.
Urgency and Potential Benefits
Agencies are working to incorporate risk and resilience assessments from climate and extreme weather into their decision-making processes including design and maintenance within their overall asset management programs. However, the industry lacks a consistent, adopted method to support quantitative trade off analysis including benefit-cost assessments. As the recent TRB Resilience Metrics Consensus Study noted – the industry also lacks metrics to understand what acceptable risk is or how to measure resilience of highway systems. Without these methods or metrics, limited research dollars may be expended developing multiple methods without industry consensus as to what the target performance of system resilience should be.
The benefits of an industry adopted quantitative method of assessment of risk to highway assets and overall system resilience is the ability to understand and justify investments to maintain overall system operations and performance to withstand or rebound from climate related events when they occur. This type of proactive approach demonstrates the industry’s commitment to reducing losses to public infrastructure and the traveling public from climate related threats.
Others Supporting Problem Statement
Potential Panel Members
Person Submitting Statement
Threat Identification and Modeling
Asset Vulnerability from Identified Relevant Threats
Establishing Risk and Resilience Performance Metrics and Levels of Performance
Intersection between Risk/Resilience Assessment and Performance Management
Intersection between Risk/Resilience Assessment and Asset Management
Education and Outreach